【聯合晚報╱編譯陳澄和/綜合報導】

2009.11.16 02:45 pm


白銀常被當作「窮人的黃金」看待,價格也相對受到抑制,但專家表示,白銀是被嚴重低估的「畢生難逢投資機會」。

最近期白銀期貨13日以每英兩17.64美元收盤,相對於黃金的1125美元,似乎顯得微不足道。然而,金價今年來只上揚25%,銀價卻已飆漲52%。白銀和黃金一樣是貴重金屬,但在多頭市場來臨時,漲勢通常會超越黃金,在工業金屬上的地位遠比黃金重要,供給銷蝕的情況也比黃金更嚴重。國際金銀交易機構 GoldCore在最近的報告中指出:「白銀是兼具貨幣與工業用途的獨特金屬,目前的價格嚴重遭到低估,是畢生難逢的投資機會。」

金價在過去兩個月激漲近11%,銀價反而只上揚3.1%。CPM集團最新的「貴金屬諮詢」報告說:「追求報酬的投資人,不論基於對股市或匯市的憂慮,或只為了快速的短期獲利,仍持續押注黃金。」然而,投資人若把眼光移轉到白銀,或許獲利會更加可觀。GoldCore的報告指出:「白銀和黃金有高度的連動關係,內行的投資人會善用黃金來保存財富的價值,但利用白銀作為賺取報酬的工具。」

VRTrader.com首席策略師萊波維特說,在股票、貨幣、債券等紙面資產開始讓投資失望後,投資人的態度也開始轉變。他說:「在這樣的景況下,波動性遠高於黃金的白銀,將是最大的獲利者。」

雖然很多分析師都同意,投資功能比工業用途更能推升銀價,但白銀的廣泛工業用途造成白銀的快速銷蝕,卻是可能帶動銀價的不容忽視因素。照相業走入數位時代後,攝影產業對白銀的需求確實明顯下滑,但包括醫療在內的其他產業,卻相繼為白銀開發出更多的用途,並實際耗損掉白銀。

SilverForecaster.com的主編菲利浦斯說:「黃金被大量的回收,基本上並未被消耗掉。但白銀在多數工業用途上,是實際被消耗掉,永遠地消失。

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【經濟日報╱編譯季晶晶/綜合外電】

2009.11.08 03:58 am


巴隆金融周刊報導,美國經濟若呈現緩步復甦,麥當勞等大型績優股看漲。
彭博資訊
巴隆金融周刊(Barron's)報導,假若美國經濟呈現緩慢穩健復甦,而非飛快成長,投資人最好選擇有強勁資產負債表、信譽卓著且有穩定成長前景的大型績優股,少碰波動性較大的小型股。

美股自3月低點反彈以來,已出現由大型績優股領漲的跡象,小型股不再是領頭羊。這似乎是因為近來經濟數據每有好轉,都會伴隨其他隱憂 。

因為經濟數據復甦力道趨緩、個人收入增加有限,以及房價仍舊偏低,使消費者支出受限,再加上信貸供需疲弱、稅率增加及商品價格上揚,美國國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率可能僅達3%,大型績優股因此成為受惠族群,因為他們的資源較多,較易取得資本。

績優股還擁有股價優勢。GMO公司投資策略師葛蘭森說:「聯準會(Fed)搶在投資人之前大買垃圾和其他風險資產,績優股相對變得非常便宜。」選股可從3 月9日以來在標普(S&P)500指數中漲幅落後的個股下手。消費者耳熟能詳的嬌生(J&J)、微軟(Microsoft )、沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)、百事可樂(PepsiCo)、孟山都(Monsanto)、可口可樂(Coca-Cola)、寶鹼(P&G)、 Medtronic、麥當勞、Verizon通訊,以及巴士特國際公司(Baxter)等都是不錯的選擇。其中有些本益比還低於市場平均值。

倘若美國經濟成長加速,小型股漲幅將持續,大型股也會上揚,只是漲幅較小。但若美國成長速率令人失望,大型績優股較不會出錯。

興業銀行(SocGen)分析師葛萊斯另外建議,投資人應小心券商分析師常常關注的類股。興業發現,分析師對產業的研究和其市值成正比,但有些獲得的關注較多,有些較少。

葛萊斯編製能透露分析師研究類股多寡現象的BAAH指數,發現能源和菸草的BAAH分數較低,也就是市值雖高卻少有分析師研究。BAAH分數最高的是營建、服飾及印刷業。

葛萊斯計算1987年以來的類股績效,發現乏人研究的能源及菸草股年報酬率約17%,最多人研究的營建及服飾股年報酬率卻僅達10%。

【2009/11/08 經濟日報】

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【經濟日報╱編譯陳家齊/綜合外電】

2009.11.08 03:58 am


「股神」巴菲特上周宣布將全額收購伯靈頓北方聖大菲鐵路公司(BNSF),成近期最受矚目併購案。分析指出,巴菲特看好鐵路發展的原因有二,一是油價,二是環保,兩者互為表裡,都是對「後石油時代」長期下注。

油價高漲讓卡車與汽車運輸成本變得更昂貴。不只是貨運將更加倚賴鐵路運輸,一旦普通美國人難以忍受飆漲的汽油價格,鐵路的客運前景也就更加光明。

除了油價,美國的「鐵路復興」還綜合多項因素。美國鐵路業近年來解決了樞紐地帶運量打結的問題,克服增加鋪軌所需的高成本,而且說服政府不干預鐵路的漲價。而長期遲緩的經濟復甦,將更讓消費者與廠商尋求低廉的運輸方式。

在環保方面,巴菲特的投資組合裡已經包括了對抗全球暖化的「綠能」產業。波克夏集團旗下的中美能源公司(MidAmerican),本身擁有數十座風力發電場,而且還投資中國大陸比亞迪公司(BYD)的電池事業。

現在,藉由收購BNSF,巴菲特的綠能投資組合又加入一個角色:清潔煤。位於蒙大拿州與懷俄明州的包德河盆地(Powder River Basin)以盛產低硫的低污染燃煤著稱,可能扮演未來美國清潔能源的要角。而BNSF正是運送包德河盆地煤藏的最主要運輸公司。

伯靈頓運送的燃煤供應了全美10%的電力。去年,煤運貢獻了伯靈頓約23%的貨運營收,而這些煤當中就有約90%是來自包德河盆地的優質煤。

分析師指出,由於美國東部的煤礦長期開採,容易採取的礦藏幾乎已經耗盡。因此東部電廠的燃煤來源最有可能移往由包德河盆地供應。所以,巴菲特等於在投資新世代的風能與電池能源時,又投資最傳統的煤礦能源,多樣下注未來的能源發展路線。

這些趨勢看法可能都要長期才能實現。不過波克夏的投資人可期望一項「先期收穫」:成為標準普爾500成分股。由於伯靈頓鐵路原來就是標準普爾500指數成分股,在併購伯靈頓之後,波克夏依慣例有機會繼承伯靈頓的成分股地位。

唯一阻止波克夏成標普500成分股的因素是股價過高,在波克夏B股進行1比50的分割後,股價便不成阻礙。這將使追蹤主要股價指數的基金買盤湧入,從而拉抬波克夏的股價。

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【聯合晚報╱編譯陳澄和/綜合報導】

2009.11.05 03:05 pm



歐新社、路透

準確預測1999年商品飆升行情的羅傑斯,4日槓上2006年就預告會爆發全球經濟危機的「末日博士」羅比尼教授,雙方針對金價的前途演出一場尖銳的多空大戰。

紐約大學的羅比尼教授10月27日曾說,很多投資人借貸美元來購買資產,並創造出「龐大的」資產泡沫。羅傑斯4日接受彭博電視訪問時說,他現在已不買股票,但會買進更多的黃金。

羅傑斯說,很多商品的行情仍然低於先前的顛峰水準,而且股票行情也未瀕臨崩潰的邊緣。他還說,黃金價格在未來十年內,至少會再翻漲一倍,飆到每英兩2000美元以上的水準。

記者問他是否同意羅比尼的觀點時,羅傑斯說:「哪來的泡沫?顯然羅比尼先生這回還是沒有做好他的功課。」他反擊羅比尼的觀點說,中國股市、糖、銀、咖啡與棉花的價格,都已至少低於歷史高峰50%。

金價4日在倫敦飆到每英兩1095.40美元的空前新高,今年來已激漲24%。

羅比尼4日則在紐約舉行的一場商品會議中說,羅傑斯預測金價會飆到每英兩2000美元「根本是胡說八道」 (utter nonsense)。

他說,目前沒有通貨膨脹,也沒有「幾近蕭條」的經濟條件,可以驅使金價飆到這麼高的水準。他說:「金價或許會漲到1100美元左右,但1500或2000美元,根本是胡說八道。」

羅比尼在紐約的演說中重申,資產行情已漲得「太多、太快」,「原油價格單憑供需的基本面,就從每桶30美元漲到80 美元以上,是很說不過去的。」

不過,兩人至少有一個看法是相同的:美元下滑會鼓勵投資者買進更多的商品與資產。

羅傑斯說:「目前,包括我在內的每個人都對美元悲觀。不論任何資產遇到這種情況,通常都會促成反彈,但這回我很懷疑會。美元弱勢會持續多久呢?我不知道。」

【2009/11/05 聯合晚報】

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【經濟日報╱編譯謝璦竹/綜合外電】

2009.11.05 03:28 am


奮勇資本基金(Intrepid Capital)經理人特拉維斯(Mark Travis)管理的基金今年來已上漲26%,表現優異,這都要拜特拉維斯對美國消費者行為的獨具慧眼。

設想你想邀幾個好友到家裡一起觀賞NASCAR賽車,度過慵懶的一天,你會買些什麼?你可能上超市買幾罐啤酒、幾包熱狗與烤肉片。牛排、啤酒、有線電視、賽車與寵物,這些是特拉維斯投資的主要產業,與傳統定義的消費必需品略有不同,但卻具有抗衰退的能耐。

特拉維斯的策略向來報酬不錯。據晨星統計,他管理的基金近三年在溫和配置型基金(moderate-allocation fund)中,年報酬率4.73%,排名第一。今年來更上漲26%,遠超過平均的18.6%。

特拉維斯的基金表現出色,不過他挑選的都是單調的企業,清一色是穩定產生現金、沒有未支付的負債,且成長雖然不快但股利高的公司。

另外,他只會以低於私人市場價值的價格投資,決不買貴。「所謂私人市場價值指的是,如果你經營一家乾洗店,我會想付你多少錢的支票來買?」

特拉維斯投資的企業還有一項共通點:多半是家族企業,因為家族企業通常不會大幅舉債,它們很會生產現金,且多半自行籌資。「我不想投資只有傭兵管理層的公司。我要能夠領略身為老闆的美麗與危險的人。」

例如,在美國擁有13條賽車跑道的國際賽車跑道公司(International Speedway Corporation)。ISCA由法蘭斯家族(France family)投資控制,而ISCA幾乎掌控美國電視收視率第二高的職業運動Nascar賽車比賽,「從贊助廠商觀點來看,它的收視率值得玩味。」

看賽車不能沒有啤酒。SABMiller公司2007年收購Grolsch,使特拉維斯的投資賺了兩倍。特拉維斯也持有不少海尼根股票,看好它的高股利,以及最近推出的淡啤酒市場。

這家由家族信託基金控制的偶像級啤酒在亞洲的知名度愈來愈高。他在稍高於10美元的時候買進,現在已漲到25美元左右。

另外,特拉維斯還看好寵物市場。不僅僅因為美國有超過1.5億隻寵物貓狗,且不管衰退多嚴重,「大多數人不會讓他們寵物挨餓受凍。」

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【聯合晚報╱編譯朱小明/綜合報導】

2009.11.02 02:39 pm

中國今年汽車銷售量已破千萬輛,上海市內環高架道路上的車輛絡繹不絕,滿足原油需求成為經濟成長隱憂。
新華社

分析師最近紛紛預測,在中國和印度需求推動下,國際油價明年將再度站上每桶100美元,恐將引發下一波全球金融危機。中國9月份石油需求量比去年同期成長12.5%,大陸油價已有蠢蠢欲動之勢,經濟學家擔心,高油價將成為中國經濟發展的重大障礙。

中國在金融風暴中祭出多項刺激經濟,包括小轎車稅務優惠,硬是把去年大幅減緩的汽車成長率拉回,9月汽車銷售量比去年同期暴增83.6%至102萬輛,今年迄今汽車銷售量已突破1000萬輛,造成原油需求上漲,9月份中國每天要用掉817萬桶原油。

今年初中國的原油需求量銳減9%,但隨後逐步回升,9月份每日進口435萬桶,比前九個月的平均進口量391萬桶多出11%,更比去年前九個月的平均進口量成長22%。9月份中國主要運輸用燃料柴油的需求比去年同期成長7.7%,寫下去年11月以來最快成長速度。

預計中國大陸今年全年汽車銷量可能突破1300萬輛大關,明年可望有20%成長率。在汽車數量激增、成品油改革機制尚未成熟下,中國大陸原油供需情況明顯失衡。

而國際油價由去年最低點38美元一路上漲,今年初以來累計上漲了79%,直逼80美元,許多分析師看好下一個目標價位為100美元,有分析師預測半年內即可能破百。

對於愈來愈倚賴進口原油的中國來說,石油需求已成當務之急,甚至可能引發「新石油危機」。大陸經濟學家關焯照指出,油價不斷上漲,增加通貨膨脹危機,是中國經濟成長的一大隱憂。關焯照表示,中國作為開發中國家,加上戰略儲備等政治因素,未來對石油的需求只會愈來愈大,輸入石油的成本將只升不降。

【2009/11/02 聯合晚報

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5 Used-Car Red Flags

By Lauren DeAngelis

If only cars could talk. It would make the buying experience a lot easier, wouldn't it? Because verbalized or not, every used car has a story to tell. And to avoid getting ripped off, it's up to you to listen. You need to know about the skeletons in that car's closet, the dark secrets of its past.

There are so many problems that can hide easily under the surface -- accident damage, a counterfeit title, failing mechanical parts. It's not as if you're marrying the car, but you are making quite a financial commitment. Wouldn't you rather find out about these red flags before saying "I do" and plunking down your hard-earned cash?

With this list of warning signs, you'll be able to make your next used car purchase confidently -- and if you do find "the one," we'll bet the relationship won't end in a messy divorce.

Red Flag #1: No Service Records

More from U.S. News & World Report

» Great Deals on Used Cars

» Best New Car Deals for October

One of the most important aspects of a used car is its maintenance history. You want to make sure you're buying a vehicle that has had routine oil changes and major mileage services. Always ask the seller, even if it's a car dealership, for all service records. If they can't provide those for you, you have no way of knowing if the car has been maintained properly. In addition to asking for records, look for a windshield sticker indicating when the car's next oil change is due. If there's no sticker or it shows an oil change is past due, ask why.

Red Flag #2: Vehicle and Accident History Issues

A vehicle history report is essential for any car purchase. You can ask the seller or dealership for the report or access it yourself online using the car's VIN (Vehicle Identification Number). AutoCheck charges $19.99 for a single report or $29.99 for unlimited reports for 60 days. The report shows accident/damage history as well as title problems, frame damage and an odometer rollback check -- any of which should be deal breakers.

Red Flag #3: Mechanical Problems

A quick look under the car can reveal fluid leaks, but unless you're an expert, you'll need to have someone else do a thorough inspection to make sure it's in good working condition. A PPI, or Pre-Purchase Inspection, is performed by a neutral third party (such as a certified mechanic or automotive technician) and costs about $100 to $200.

The inspection is a detailed assessment of the cosmetic and mechanical condition of the vehicle. It is an invaluable asset since it can alert you to problems, maintenance issues and even frame damage hiding under the surface. The mechanic should put the car on a lift to check undercarriage components. Make sure he or she also uses a paint meter gauge to catch any re-painted body panels -- which mean the car may have been in accidents that weren't reported to the insurance company (if they had been reported, they would show up on your AutoCheck vehicle history report). Choose the party who will perform the inspection, rather than going with someone recommended by the seller. Ask to have the results sent directly to you.

You may be tempted to skip a PPI, but it's almost always well worth it. You're making a large investment in a vehicle, and the price of the PPI is only a very small fraction of that. If any problems the PPI shows are deal breakers, you can walk away from the sale. If not, you can still use them to negotiate a better price.

Red Flag #4: A Problem Title

Your AutoCheck vehicle report will show any problem titles on the car's record at any point in its history -- everything from hail damage to fire damage. Most of these issues are red flags, but here's just a sampling of those to avoid at all costs: Flood titles, which means the vehicle has received extensive water damage; salvage titles, which mean an insurance company has at some point declared the car a total loss due to sustained damage; and junk titles, which mean the vehicle indicate that a vehicle is not safe enough for use and the car cannot be titled again in that state.

Red Flag #5: A Fraudulent Title

A problem-free title doesn't mean it's valid. Criminals can create counterfeit or fraudulent titles and use them to legally register and then sell stolen cars. If you buy a car without a valid title, it's the worst-case scenario -- you don't legally own the car you just bought.

The first step to verify the title is to check with the DMV. Usually, you'll just need the car's VIN number and may be charged a small fee (often these transactions require you to go to the DMV's office). You need to make sure the VIN on the car matches the VIN on the title and the seller's name matches the one on the title. This record check is also valuable because it will show any outstanding liens on the title, which means that the owner is still making payments on the car and doesn't own it outright. This could complicate the sale later, especially if you're buying from a private seller.

However, even if the title appears to belong to the seller, it could still be fraudulent. There are a few signs that may signify foul play. Play close attention if the vehicle was recently brought to your state and titled or if the VIN number on the car is obscured or shows signs of tampering. The title should look official, meaning it will be printed on special paper with watermarks (visible when held up to the light). All text, graphics and borders should be sharp, not blurred. If you can, compare the title with an original (perhaps from a friend's car in the same state) and make sure the two look the same.

The Bottom Line

Checking for all these red flags may seem excessive, but they can save you time and headaches down the line. In the end, the PPI, AutoCheck vehicle history report, DMV records and seller should be consistent. If any of the information seems fishy, consider walking away from the sale. If any of the above warning signs do surface, you may not even want to give the car a second thought. It doesn't hurt to walk away, but it can sure hurt a lot to buy a problem vehicle. Plus, with the internet, you can find virtually any car, anywhere. And as they say, there are plenty of other fish in the sea.

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Thank Heaven for Legal Tax Havens
by Kay Bell
Tuesday, October 27, 2009provided byBankrate

If you're like most Americans, you don't have a secret bank account in Switzerland where you stash money to keep it out of IRS hands.

Being out of the foreign tax-shelter loop isn't such a bad thing. Uncle Sam recently signed a new tax treaty with that Alpine nation that should help U.S. collectors crack down on tax-evading owners of foreign bank accounts.

More from Bankrate.com:

• 10 Biggest Bank Failures So Far

• Can You Deduct Your Moving Expenses?

• 12 Must-Do’s for the First-Time Homebuyer

But there still are plenty of legal tax havens for law-abiding taxpayers. Even better, most regular Joe and Jane taxpayers can easily take advantage of them.

Gimme Shelter

If you own a home, your actual shelter is probably your best tax shelter. Your house's tax-cutting opportunities start as soon as you buy it and continue until you sell it.

You get deductions for all or part of your mortgage interest, points paid to get the loan, interest on certain home equity loans, and your annual property tax payments. These write-offs can help reduce your tax bill each filing season.

Then there is the profit on your home's sale. That's money the IRS can't touch.

"The biggest thing in real estate that would apply to most people is the primary residence sale exclusion," says Mark Luscombe, principal federal tax analyst at CCH in Riverwoods, Ill., a provider of tax information and services.

More from Yahoo! Finance:

• Why Angry Homeowners Are Fighting Their Property Taxes

• States Slamming Residents With Big Tax Hikes

• Don't Put Too Much Stock -- Yet -- In Rising Median Home Prices
Visit the Tax Center

Under this tax code provision, up to $250,000 in sale profit for a single taxpayer, twice that for a married couple filing a joint return, is not taxed. "If you sell before your gain gets to that point, you can avoid ever having to pay tax on the residence," says Luscombe.

The beauty of this home-related tax shelter is that it applies to every principal residence you ever own as long as you meet the IRS rules. The key requirement is that you live in the home two of the five years before you sell.

"There are instances where people will buy a fixer-upper and live there for two years while fixing it up and then sell it at a profit. And though a lot of that profit can be attributable to their sweat equity, they still qualify for home sale exclusion," says Bob D. Scharin, senior tax analyst from the Tax & Accounting business of Thomson Reuters in New York City.

Investment Opportunities

Investment real estate also offers some tax-shelter opportunities.

"One thing with real estate that puts it in that tax category as a more conventional shelter is that you can make a small down payment on real estate yet base your depreciation deduction on the entire purchase price," says Scharin.

Along with the depreciation on the investment property, you also get mortgage interest and real estate tax deductions, as well as a write-off for upkeep and maintenance costs.

Of course, when you sell investment real estate, you will owe capital gains on the profit. But you might be able to delay that bill by taking advantage of another tax law.

Exchange Advantages

Internal Revenue Code Section 1031 offers you a chance to postpone paying taxes on investment property by swapping it for another. Also known as a like-kind exchange, you sell a property and then use those proceeds to purchase another like one.

"Instead of recognized gain on the sold property, you roll it into new property and essentially reduce your cost basis in the new property by that gain," says Dawn Greenberg, CPA and tax principal at Toms River, N.J.-based Cowan, Gunteski & Co.

When you eventually sell the new property, you'll recognize the originally deferred gain plus any additional accrued since you purchased the replacement property. But if you don't need the proceeds and just want to get rid of the property, says Greenberg, a 1031 exchange could help postpone an investment tax bill. In effect, you get an interest-free loan from Uncle Sam in the amount you would have paid in taxes.

While like-kind exchanges are often used by real estate investors, the technique is available for any investment or business property. If you're interested in a 1031 exchange, consult an expert in the area. It can get complicated and there are strict rules, such as the requirement that any swap be made by a qualified intermediary rather than by the property owner. If you make a misstep in the exchange process, it could invalidate any tax benefits.

Municipal Bonds

If you prefer more traditional investments, there are some tax shelter opportunities there, too.

"If bonds fit into your financial plan, look at municipal bonds," says Luscombe. These instruments are issued primarily by state or local governments, or state-related organizations.

The tax benefit? Some states don't tax interest on bonds issued by their municipalities. As for the IRS, municipal bond income is not taxed at the federal level.

Business Tax Breaks

Business owners, including those who set up a sideline to supplement full-time wage income, can use several IRS-approved tax shelters.

Section 179 of the tax code allows you to deduct substantial costs of business property purchases in the tax year they are made. Without this provision, the costs of items such as furniture and other equipment special to your business would have to be recovered through depreciation over several years, says Scharin.

If you operate your business out of your home, you could be entitled to a home office deduction. With this tax break, you can convert some of the maintenance cost of your home to tax deductions.

"The insurance on your house or if you need a new roof, a percentage of these costs would be deductible," says Scharin. The amount is figured using the percentage of space that your home office represents.

A business owner also can hire the spouse and kids as long as they do real work for the company. "That gets additional income to them and provides deductions to the business," says Luscombe.

Workplace Benefits

You don't have to be an entrepreneur to shelter income from Uncle Sam.

Greenberg says employees should take advantage of workplace benefits. Flexible spending accounts, to help pay child care costs and out-of-pocket medical expenses, allow workers to contribute money to the accounts before payroll taxes are figured. "You never pay taxes on that money," says Greenberg.

That same pretax break is available for workplace 401(k) retirement plans.

Retirement Plans

Other outside-the-office retirement savings also can help you shelter income. Some traditional IRA owners might get an immediate tax deduction on their returns, along with a deferral of taxes on the IRA earnings.

A Roth IRA is great way for some folks to avoid tax. You don't get any deduction for Roth contributions, but when you eventually take money out of the account, it will be tax-free.

And entrepreneurs have a variety of retirement plans -- SEP and SIMPLE IRAs, Keoghs, Solo 401(k)s -- that can help reduce their taxable business income as well as help prepare for eventual life after work.

With each of these various tax shelters, from your home to investments to your job to retirement savings, the IRS offers ways to hang onto more of your money. And when the tax man says it's OK to keep money out of his hands, who's going to argue?
Copyrighted, Bankrate.com. All rights reserved.

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【聯合報╱國際中心/綜合報導】

2009.10.27 03:59 am


美國已公布第三季盈餘報告的企業中,八成以上優於分析師預期;但專家說,盈餘佳績內藏詭計,各公司實際表現並不如財報顯示的可圈可點。

企業多年來大玩「低報預期目標」技倆、引導分析師設定偏低預期進而讓企業輕易過關,主宰股票漲跌;就算公布出來的數據顯示盈餘與營收衰退,只要優於預期,多半仍可避免股票下跌。

佐克斯投資研究公司證券策略長迪克表示,企業早已習慣壓低盈虧預期目標,最近歷經金融風暴後,各公司意識到只要盈餘報告不如預期,投資人總不留情的拋售股票。

一旦盈餘優於分析師預期,企業股票往往應聲上漲,很容易誤導企業營運狀況及經濟前景。根據調查,目前已公布盈餘報告的企業中,超過八成優於分析師預期;但是竟有高達六成的企業盈餘低於去年同期,兩個數據相互矛盾。

企業對於低報預期目標樂此不疲,即使在包括金融風暴時期的過去二年間,企業盈餘優於分析師預期的比例仍高達65%,去年秋季金融風暴爆發後的二個季度,優於預期的企業家數依舊占多數,是不如預期的二倍。盈餘報告是否超過預期與營運實況未必相符。

企業低報目標的技倆之所以歷久不衰,主要是因為分析師與絕大多數媒體把焦點放在經一次性項目調整後的盈餘數字,企業只要把資產減值、重整費用等一次性費用扣除,盈餘便一下子拉高,贏得喝彩。

低報預期目標是普遍手法,但各公司操縱目標的功力高低有別,蘋果、思科脫穎而出。

蘋果公司不久前公布上季盈餘,連續第27個季度超過分析師預期,自2001年第一季以來,從來不曾公布令人失望的報告;思科則自1998至2001年的13個季度,每股盈餘總是分毫不差的較分析師預期高1分。

經紀商Broadpoint AmTech公司科技分析師馬休爾多年觀察後發現,蘋果設定的目標低得離譜;然而,分析師就算覺得可疑,卻苦無證據,只好接受並根據企業版數字提出預估目標。

【2009/10/27 聯合報】@ http://udn.com

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【聯合晚報╱編譯朱小明/綜合報導】

2009.10.27 02:39 pm


巴菲特
歐新社

英國廣播公司(BBC)網站刊登「股神」巴菲特的專訪,報導他如何在衝擊全球的金融危機中發揮逆向思考,再度賺進數十億美元。

巴菲特有一句股市名言:「當所有人都戒慎恐懼時,你應該要貪,當大家都貪婪時,你應該戒慎恐懼。」在金融海嘯中他奉行這項策略,去年9月全球股市都如履薄冰時,放膽以極優惠的條件對高盛投資銀行投入50億美元。

用行動投高盛信心票

巴菲特說,他之所以取得優厚條件,主要原因是當時沒有多少人能夠拿得出50億美元來投資。可是從另一方面來說,巴菲特以行動對高盛投下信心票,對高盛來說也是極寶貴的資產。這筆交易如今證明是明智之舉,巴菲特的潛在利潤可能達到數十億美元。

巴菲特的成績傲人,他旗下波克夏公司的平均年成長率達20.3%,從1965年至今成長了到336,000%,是美國S&P 500指數的84倍。

作為波克夏的最大股東,巴菲特去年名列全球首富,由於股票在世界金融危機中下跌,首富地位再次被好友比爾‧蓋茲奪走。不過,巴菲特從來不在乎首富頭銜,更不理會股價一時的漲跌。儘管有400億美元資產,他依舊平實,住在距離華爾街2000公里的內布拉斯加州奧馬哈市舊居,一份火腿三明治就打發了晚餐,然後上網玩橋牌。如果玩家碰到的對手自稱「T-Bone」,那就是股神本尊啦!

巴菲特的財富計算單位已由百萬變成10億,他的辦公室卻沒有電腦、沒有股票機、甚至連計算機都沒有。他說:如果一項交易需要複雜的計算才能決定是否值得,這筆交易多半不值得做。

巴菲特的員工說,他們打電話給巴菲特時,接電話的通常是巴菲特本人。巴菲特擁有大約70家公司,並且在許多其他公司投資,但他似乎有用不完的時間。

未來也有15年的低潮

雖然號稱股神,巴菲特從來不做殺進殺出的事,也訓練他手下的企業主管和公司股東進行長遠的戰略性思考。他也希望波克夏的股東永遠抱著公司股票,他告訴股東,19和20世紀都有15年左右的低潮,未來的世紀也同樣會有15年低潮。

巴菲特明年將滿80歲,但他似乎仍然沒有退出江湖的打算,而且在他宣布退休之前,也不打算宣布接班人。他開玩笑說,早早宣布接班人幹什麼?「難道要他們整天坐在我的辦公室,等著我把報告看完再輪到他們看。」

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【經濟日報╱編譯廖玉玲/路透紐約二十一日電】

2009.10.22 03:48 am


女人要的是什麼?答案是「更多時間和生活主導權」。能了解女性的需求,並擬定相關策略的企業,就能得到龐大的商機。

新書《女人要更多》(Women Want More,暫譯)的作者席維斯坦(Michael Silverstein)和賽爾(Kate Sayre)指出,女性需要能夠幫她們省時的產品和服務,浪費太多時間的當然就為她們摒棄。

不滿革命 醞釀金礦

他們說:「不滿革命」已在女性間醞釀,了解女性需要更多時間、同時能對此擬定行銷策略的企業,就有機會挖到金礦。

席維斯坦說,女性的教育程度愈來愈高,未來五年全球女性就業人口將由10億增加為12億,整體年收入將由12兆增至18兆美元。她們的權力無疑將隨收入增加而提高,成為全球經濟成長的最大動能。

席維斯坦預言,未來幾年內,企業從女性市場發掘的商機,將會隨著成長中的「女性經濟」而快速增加。

不少企業已掌握到女性對時間的需求,例如加州連鎖超市Trader Joe's,推出方便省時的調理食品;服飾零售業者蓋普(Gap)旗下品牌香蕉共和國(Banana Republic)把服飾風格標準化,使女性購衣更輕鬆省時。

女性颶風 吹出商機

書中也提到,尤其令女性不滿意的產業,是投資、銀行、保險和信用卡等金融服務業,其次為健康照護和耐久消費財業。女性最常抱怨的是理財顧問和經紀人對她們很不好,不了解女性的需求,也沒有以她們的最大利益為出發點。

作者席維斯坦提醒,忽略女性需求的企業將自食惡果。

領先同業、率先發現這個趨勢的公司可望脫穎而出;如果後知後覺、是最後一個發現這個問題的企業,最後恐怕只能搖頭嘆氣,搞不清楚是受什麼打擊。

他這麼形容:是「女性颶風」侵襲。

這本書是由哈潑柯林斯(HarperCollins)出版,內容是根據波士頓顧問集團(BCG)對全球40國、逾1.2萬名女性所做的調查,詳細內容可到womenspeakworldwide.com網站上瀏覽。

【2009/10/22 經濟日報】

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【聯合報╱記者莊琇閔/台北報導】

2009.10.22 02:56 am


一家預防醫學機構根據1012名25歲至49歲的女性上班族健檢報告統計,高達7成腰臀比過高,長期膳食纖維攝取不足,造成腰腹部脂肪堆積,讓罹患三高慢性病的風險大增。

聯安預防醫學機構指出,雖然近9成女性上班族都認同膳食纖維攝取的重要性,但仍有57%的女性上班族每天攝取高纖食物不足2個拳頭,且有近半的女性選擇高纖餅乾、白米飯或盒裝蔬果汁,當成膳食纖維來源。

聯安院長鄭乃源表示,白米飯、麵條為求口感已先去除麩皮,纖維含量大幅減少,而高纖餅乾的纖維含量其實並不高,盒裝蔬果汁的纖維含量比起新鮮蔬果更是少之又少,想用這些食材來補足膳食纖維,不但難上加難,還可能因此攝取過多的熱量。

根據衛生署建議,每人每日最低應攝取25克膳食纖維,以1顆1斤的高麗菜為例,膳食纖維含量僅7.4g,換句話說,每日吃進3大顆高麗菜也無法滿足一整天的膳食纖維需求。

鄭乃源強調,足夠膳食纖維是避免腰腹部脂肪堆積的關鍵因素之一。民眾可自行計算「腰臀比」(腰圍/臀圍)來自我檢視,女性若是超過0.8就代表腰腹部囤積過多脂肪。

鄭乃源建議想減少腰腹脂肪堆積,就應攝取大量膳食纖維,除蔬果、五穀雜糧外,也可將燕麥作為重要的攝取來源。

市面上已有多款燕麥飲品,消費者可以依據標示的熱量及膳食纖維成份,搭配低熱量輕食,控制熱量及增加膳食纖維攝取量。

【2009/10/22 聯合報

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‧諾姆.布羅斯基 2009/10/20
我的第一個師父,也是我最好的師父,是紐約市一位小商人。他的生意是沿街叫賣,到客戶家裡賣布料、用品和雜貨。他就像個四處遊走的一人百貨公司,生意上的大小事,全由自己一人打理。
【前言】

很多正要創業的人比較喜歡逐步指導的公式,或是一套他們可以用來達成目標的具體規則。問題是,世上根本就沒有這種東西。我們有的,只是一種思考方式,讓我們可以處理各種不同的情境,並且在各種不同的機會出現時,好好把握。雖然我們不可能個個都是伍茲、畢卡索或莎士比亞,但人人都可以學會打高爾夫、畫畫或寫十四行詩,而且,人人都能學會財務獨立。

一百萬美元就在你腳下

我們都有生意上的師父,但他們在當我們師父的時候,我們卻未必察覺。

我的第一個師父,也是我最好的師父,是紐約市一位小商人。他的生意是沿街叫賣,到客戶家裡賣布料、用品和雜貨。他就像個四處遊走的一人百貨公司,生意上的大小事,全由自己一人打理──從採購到記帳、到信用管理、到收款。有時候,我會跟著他跑一趟,我會問很多的問題,而他也會把他為什麼這麼做的邏輯解釋給我聽。就這樣,我學到一些至今仍然受用的重要生意觀念。

然而,當時我並不重視我所得到的教育。那時的我只有八歲。那位沿街叫賣的小販,就是我的父親。

在成長的過程中,我從來都沒有想到要經商,我不想走父親的老路。大學畢業後,我進入法學院,以為我要靠法律賺錢。但造化弄人,最後我還是去經商了。這時我才了解,過去父親所教我的,竟是如此之多。

例如,他是第一個向我解釋為什麼高毛利率很重要的人。他用的是不同的說法──利差要大──但道理是一樣的。「每一筆生意一定要有很好的利差,」他說:「你的客戶一定得是付得起錢的人。」「不要占別人的便宜。」「要合理。」這些都是深植在我心中、非常了不起的生意課程,而且全都直接來自我父親。

此外,他還有一些想法。「不要為一件事情煩惱兩次,」當我對即將發生的事──例如期末考──感到焦慮不安時,他會這樣對我說。他問:「你把功課做好了嗎?你已經準備好了嗎?」我一向都會準備好。「那就不要煩惱兩次。」換句話說,不要浪費時間和精力,在不會發生的問題上。

當我抱怨對未來的人生感到茫然不知時,他說:「你的鞋子底下就有一百萬;你只要找一找就行了。」一直要到後來成為一個企業家,我才明白他的意思。

當我提到某樣我很想要的東西時,他說:「你不提出要求,就得不到。」我於是要求能有更多的零用錢。他笑著說:「提出來很好,但你不會只因為提出要求,就得到你想要的東西。」很久之後我才知道,他為我上了銷售的第一課。

養成一種成功者的「心智習慣」

這些教誨,對我產生了潛移默化的效果。它們成了我的心智習慣,引導我,讓我在不知不覺中照著做。

例如,我有一個承襲自父親的好習慣,就是把問題分解成幾個基本單元,再一一克服。他相信,大多數的生意問題──還有人生問題──雖然乍看之下好像很複雜,其實基本上都很簡單。他教我在處理問題時,必須檢視其基本元素,並了解真正的來龍去脈。而且,千萬別以為從表面上所看到的,就是真正的問題。這個思考方式,多年來一直是我最有力的事業工具。

事實上,我認為要想成功創業,靠的就是這些心智習慣。我個人創業三十多年來,成立的公司超過八家,其中一家快遞公司,連續三年被《企業》(Inc.)雜誌評選為五百大成長最快速的未上市公司;另外一家檔案倉儲公司,則是以一億一千萬美元的價格售出。

這一路走來,我有幸能夠認識許多成功的創業家,我發現,我們大都具有相同的心智習慣。這些心智習慣,就是我們成功的祕訣。(呃,好吧,這只是成功的祕訣之一。我事業上的一大助力,當然是結縭三十九年的太太伊蓮〔Elaine〕,沒有這位終身伴侶,我不可能有今天的成就。)

寫到這裡,我知道,不是每個人都想聽這些。很多正要創業的人,比較喜歡逐步條列的成功公式,或是一套他們可以用來達成目標的具體規則。問題是,世上根本就沒有這種東西。我們有的,只是一種思考方式,讓我們可以處理各種不同的情況,並在不同的機會出現時,好好的把握。當然,看了我所講的這套心法,並不保證你做什麼事都無往不利,但一定可以大幅提升你成功的機會。你將會成多敗少,而你在這場遊戲中活得越久,就越有可能登上高峰。

我相信,大多數的人都能發展出我所說的這些心智習慣,並用這些心法賺到一筆錢,去過他們想要的生活。

(本文轉載自諾姆.布羅斯基、鮑.柏林罕新書《師父》,中文譯本由早安財經出版)

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【聯合晚報╱編譯朱小明/綜合報導】

2009.10.20 03:09 pm


受惠於智慧型手機iPhone和麥金塔 (Macintosh)電腦空前熱賣,美國蘋果公司上季淨利跳增47%,營收也大漲25%,遠遠超過分析師預期,帶動蘋果盤後股價衝破歷史記錄,未來繼續看漲。

截至9月26日為止的會計年度第4季,蘋果獲利達到驚人的16.7億美元,或每股1.82美元,優於去年同期的11.4億美元和每股1.26美元。第4季營收為98.7億美元,遠高於去年同期的79億美元。蘋果的業績比分析師已經十分樂觀預測還要漂亮,據湯森路透調查,分析師預測的營收為92億美元或每股 1.42美元。

iPhone和麥金塔的銷量雙雙刷新歷史紀錄,麥金塔電腦在經濟下滑中的表現壓過其他電腦,上季共售出305萬台,較去年同期的260萬台成長17%,高於分析師預期的280萬台。iPhone銷量也成長7%,賣出740萬支,高於分析師預測的700 萬支。

為因應經濟不景氣,蘋果祭6月份推出速度更快的iPhone 3G ,並把舊款機種價格降至99美元,積極行銷策略的成效卓著。iPhone銷售量比上一季度成長了43%,並出現產量不足的現象,顯示市場需求強勁。

不過,由於新款iPhone整合了數位音樂播放機iPod的功能,導致iPod銷售成績受挫,上季銷售量降至1020萬台,較去年同期衰退8%;9月份推出結合影像攝影功能的iPod Nano,無法有效提振買氣。

蘋果執行長喬布斯發表聲明表示:「我們十分興奮,上季出售的iPhon和麥金塔比過去任何一季都多」,他並且透露,蘋果在2010年會推出「非常棒」的新產品。分析師認為,喬布斯所指的產品可能就是傳聞已久的平板電腦。

蘋果2009會計年度獲利成長18%至57億美元,每股5.36美元,營收成長13%至365億美元。蘋果預測本季獲利1.70至1.78 美元,低於分析師預測的1.91美元。但蘋果本身的財測一向極為保守,投資人期待iPhone於10月30日在中國開賣、本季也將在南韓上市,預料 iPhone的銷售量會繼續強勁成長。

蘋果股價今年已上漲了近一倍,對蘋果業績的樂觀預測使蘋果股價在19日正常交易上漲10美元以上,至200.65美元;盤後更一度跳漲7.5%、觸及204元,超越2007年12月27日所創的202.96美元盤中歷史高價。

第一美國基金分析師史諾瑞克認為,蘋果也許是科技業當中業績成長最可觀的公司,預料未來六到九個月內,股價將飆漲至250美元。

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10 Careers With Shorter On-Ramps


A well-paying, rewarding career doesn't have to mean a four-year slog through college. There are plenty of jobs that pay nicely with less education, ranging from certificate courses just a few months long to two-year community college programs.

Education costs for most of these careers are modest -- you might even pay nothing at all. If you're from a low-income family and between 18-24, you may qualify to receive up to three years of free job training, housing and support services through the federal program Job Corps. National program director Esther Jacobs says Job Corps serves roughly 100,000 students a year.

"We're the best-kept secret in this country," she says.

Otherwise, state-sponsored technical and vocational schools will usually be a cheaper option than private training companies, and many offer financial aid. Most training programs will help you with job placement when you're done, too.

Here's a look at some of the best-paying jobs you can get into fast, listed with their median annual pay rate for someone with three to five years' experience, according to PayScale.com.

Network installers, network administrators, computer systems administrators
If you enjoy tinkering with computers and wireless-network routers, consider this field. The business slowdown may have damped demand a bit, but it'll rebound fast as the economy picks up, says Laurence Shatkin, co-author of "300 Best Jobs Without a Four-Year Degree." Salary: $49,801.

Police officer
Law-and-order types who enjoy working with people might consider a quick career change into law enforcement. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports some police departments take candidates right out of high school and let them start with just a few months of training provided by the department, while others require one to two years of police-academy training. $47,485.

Court reporter
This one's a great recession-proof career for those who enjoy courtroom drama. There's great job security as the courts must continue to function in good times or bad, notes author Shatkin. $47,275.

Clinical laboratory technologist
Science nuts who regularly watch "CSI" might want to consider this line of work. Clinical lab techs examine tissue and body fluids under a microscope and test them for diseases. This field is expected to grow as new diagnostic tests continue to be developed, says Shatkin. Entry into the field requires at least a two-year training course from either a technical college or hospital. $47,081.

Heating-ventilation-air conditioning (HVAC) installer
If you enjoy working with your hands, this job's got that, along with the satisfaction of knowing you're helping people stay cool -- or warm. You can earn the required certificate at a community college, private school or online (click here for a list of schools), and get started in just a few months. $44,814.

Computer numerical control
In areas of the country that still have a strong manufacturing base, there's demand for people who can program the robots that do much of today's assembly-line work, says Bryan Albrecht, president of Gateway Technical College in Kenosha, Wisconsin. "You need strong analytical decision making skills, where you can diagnose a problem in a machine," he says. $44,629.

Solar energy systems installer
This and many other "green" jobs are hot now, as the recently signed federal stimulus bill put billions into alternative energy and energy conservation. Albrecht reports classes in this field are filling up fast at his college, as a boom in installing solar panels is expected. $44,460.

Correctional officer
Working in prisons can be stressful and hazardous, so it pays pretty well. Corrections can also be a good option for those who want to work the night shift, as prisons must be staffed 24/7. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics report on this occupation notes that local and state prisons may accept high school graduates without further training. $42,795.

Security and fire-alarm systems installers
Demand for security systems, Webcams and fire alarms is increasing, author Shatkin says, because the price of these systems is falling. The National Alarm Association of America says training can be done in less than two weeks and costs under $1,000. $41,417.

Aircraft mechanic
People who enjoy tinkering with their cars -- and live near an airport -- might consider this field, which pays better than automotive repair. Unless Americans suddenly give up their love affair with cheap travel, this field is expected to see continued steady growth. According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly 170 schools nationwide are certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to offer the needed training, which usually takes between 18 months and two years. $39,584.

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